Batting Lineups: Biased and unqualified!
With the regular season upon us (well for
M’s and A’s fans), we need to start harnessing our excitement towards
productive means. Things such as; fabrication of your Opening Day 2012 Signs,
heading down to the Jays Shop to load up on Vizquel gear, planting the seed
towards your “get out of work free” card next Thursday at 2pm, playing
rock-paper-scissors to see who doesn’t get the last ticket to the opener and
coming up with your guest list for any pre-game festivities…preferably involving
kegs and bbq’d meats.
For me, I have channeled my energy towards
this posting. I have decided to play manager for the MLB roster and come up
with my ideal batting lineup. The reason for doing so, besides
boredom/interest, is that I don’t see myself agreeing with the “expected”
starting batting order that would likely have Lawrie buried down to the depths
of Sean Rodriguez, Jason Kipnis, or even, dare I say, Alexi Casilla. Most of
the current projections that I have seen have the Jays order looking like this…even
though KJ is making a case to lead off coming out of spring.
1.
Escobar
2.
KJ
3.
Joey Bats
4.
Lind
5.
EE
6.
Rasmus
7.
Lawrie
8.
Thames
9.
JPA
Here is my proposed lineup…
1.
Escobar
2.
KJ
3.
Lawrie
4.
Joey Bats
5.
Lind
6.
EE
7.
Rasmus
8.
JPA
9.
Thames
Sure there are only subtle differences, but
I see them as being substantial. To take a page out of the Moneyball approach,
to win, SCORE RUNS! Sure there’s the “I want Bautista hitting in the 1st
inning” claim but really can you think of a better (albeit unproven to some
degree) 1 -2 punch with our current crop of talent? Lawrie at 3 is a high
average, high OPS workhorse with speed to not only drive in runs, but further
set the table for Bautista (and Lind). Think about the pitches he’s going to
see batting in front of arguably the most feared batter in the league. Bautista
proved last season that he really doesn’t NEED the protection behind him in the
lineup to produce….regardless, he’s still got Lind behind him which doesn’t
change anything…except his 1st inning ABs. I DO like the R-L-R combo
to start games, to allow good opportunity for early hit and run scenarios as
well as tougher matchups for bullpen substitutions. Beyond the infusion of
Lawrie at the top of the lineup, really I’ve suggested minor tweaks that likely
would iron out in the wash…lets see what happens!
To take it one step further, let’s compare
to what I think are the scariest lineups in MLB.
| Lineups to reckon with… | |||||
| BOS | NYY | DET | TEX | LAA | |
| 1 | Ellsbury L | Jeter R | Jackson R | Kinsler R | Aybar S |
| 2 | Pedroia R | Granderson L | Boesch L | Andrus R | Kendrick R |
| 3 | Crawford L | Cano L | Cabrera R | Hamilton L | Pujols R |
| 4 | Gonzalez L | Arod R | Fielder L | Beltre R | Hunter R |
| 5 | Ortiz L | Texiera S | Young R | Young R | Wells R |
| 6 | Youkilis R | Swisher S | Avila L | Cruz R | Abreu/Trumbo L/R |
| 7 | Ross/Sweeny (R/L) | Ibanez L | Peralta R | Napoli R | Callaspo S |
| 8 | Saltalamacchia S | Martin R | Dirks L | Moreland L | Iannetta R |
| 9 | Aviles R | Gardner L | Raburn R | Borbon L | Bourjos R |
Each of them has at least 1
left handed bat in the first 3. All of them have their 4 hitter bracketed by a
solid batter (perhaps with the exception of Mr. Wells). We may not stack up 1-5
with each of these lineups…but 1-9 we are right there and with the 5th
best offence in the AL last season, there is little reason to think the Jays
will be taking any steps backwards.
I was talking about this the other day about this and we were talking about how it was only a matter of time before Lawrie made his way to the top of the batting order. Its hard to justify keeping a bat as strong (assuming he continues his insane spring) as his in the bottom of the lineup. I think it makes perfect sense to have Lawrie in front of Bautista. The amount of pitches he'd see would be ludicrous! Not mention how many more RBI JoeyBats would get. I think it'll be interesting to see what happens with Rasmus. His bat HAS to produce this year. If it does than that adds that much more depth to the lineup. However, if he doesn't you gotta wonder if he'll slide down to 8th or 9th (if he hasnt' been traded by that point).
ReplyDeleteI agree that KJ should be a STRONG candidate to take over the leadoff spot. He's had some strong AB's in that role this spring and its nice to have that option.
Its effed up how strong those AL lineups are. What's awesome is that our lineup is on its way to becoming a full on contender with those top 5!
Great post. It's very interesting to analyze the line up and potential order. I'm reminded of Matthew Berry, the Fantasy baseball insider for ESPN who strongly believes that there is no such thing as "protection" in the line up. I somewhat agree, case in point; good hitters will hit irrespective of where they fall in the order. And do you think pitchers actually serve up balls to guys in order to get the 3-4 hitters out. I don't buy this entirely. I like the idea of having Lawrie bat lower in the order. Not only does it take some of the pressure off, but possibly strengthens the bottom part and injects some energy. Regardless, Lawrie is so confident he could handle hitting anywhere. On another note - the Rangers lineup is ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteVery intriguing thoughts. I too like the idea of moving Lawrie up in the lineup, but I'd rather he slip into the #4 slot. In a lot of ways, I think Lawrie is a much more intimidating hitter than Bautista, even this early in his career. Bautista is the BETTER hitter right now, but I still don't feel like he's as intimidating as Lawrie. Even if Lind was hitting .450, he doesn't carry the mystique of Lawrie in my opinion, and doesn't create the same fear. For that reason, I don't think Lind can ever create protection for Bautista. Right now I think Lawrie will hit the same way no matter where he is in the lineup. But put him behind Bautista, giving Bautista a few more pitches each game, and Jose's gonna rip it up.
ReplyDelete