Slip Sniderin' Away...

Travis Snider...Travis, Travis, Travis, Travis, TRAVIS!!! Oh how you toy with my heart each and every year. Since his initial stint in the big leagues in 2008, I (along with many other Jays fans) have been  waiting for him to explode and become one of the better LF's in the league (both offensively and defensively), but each season we're left shaking our heads,baffled at how he is unable to remain up with the big club. I have to admit that I really thought that last year was going to be his year, I was sure of it...maybe it was the 'comin' home' promo ads of him walking in slo-mo..or maybe it was because it was his 4th year with the club and after going up and down from the minors to the show, it was finally his time to shine. However, he and his awful mustache were unable to make it happen. Here's a break down of Baby Face's career thus far:

2008

Snider was first called up to the Jays on August 29, 2008. He stayed with the club for the remainder of that season and finished with the following stats.

 

		G	AB	H	SO	AVG
2008	Jays	18	64	22	23	0.301

Fans were left with giddyness at what this kid had the potential to be....

2009

After a great September the prior season, Snider started the 2009 season with the Jays. He got off to a decent start but quickly stalled and was sent back to Triple A in May.
 

		G	AB	H	SO	AVG
2009	Minors	48	175	59	47	0.337
	Jays	77	241	58	78	0.241

He absolutely lit it up in the minors for three months and was recalled by the Jays again in August where his numbers sucked...but "Hey," we thought, "this happens to most young players."

2010

The 2010 season, Snider was all over the place (3 different leagues in the minors) and the big club. Here's the comparison...

		G	AB	H	SO	AVG
2010	Minors	25	104	28	24	0.291
	Jays	82	298	76	79	0.255

Well, he spent more time with the big club than he had to date, so maybe he'd turn the corner soon. "Next year will definitely be his 'Ah-ha!' year."

2011

After opening the 2011 season with the Jays he had a .184 batting average with 1 home run and 12 RBI through 25 games, Snider was optioned to AAA on April 28. 

		G	AB	H	SO	AVG
2011	Minors	61	248	81	44	0.327
	Jays	49	187	42	56	0.225

   On July 3, Baby Face was recalled by the Blue Jays. However, on August 4 Snider was optioned back to Triple-A to make room for some guy named Brett Lawrie. His frustrating season came to an end when he was diagnosed with tendinitis in his right wrist on August 25 and didn't play another game. 

    One can look at these stats and clearly see that Snider struggles at the Major League level...he then gets sent down to the minors and tears the cover off of the ball. So the team thinks 'Hey, kid is back on track' and they call him up again only to see him decline. What is it about this player that he can't produce with any consistency in the Majors. I've heard some say that with his history of wrist injuries, he has trouble turning on fastballs at the major league level. Many believe that he has a tough time laying off pitches (see SO #'s) and therefore doesn't take enough walks. 

    

    So, as we approach the 2012 season, one can't help but think that this has to be Snider's last chance with the club. The job in LF is Snider's to lose, and if Eric Thames' workout regiment this off season is a sign of what he could do with the bat this year, Snider could be in trouble. Snider is clearly the better defender, but if he can't get his stuff together that position is Thames'.

    

    I just can't write him off yet...its hard to write off a player that has yet to play a full season in the majors. He has to have the shortest leash on the team this year for sure. To be honest,  I was surprised that he wasn't dealt in the off-season. Perhaps nobody wanted him...if he fails to stay up this year, his trade value will be next to nil.  Snider has long been one of my favourite Jays, but its hard to still believe that he can pull it off in the bigs. Don't get me wrong, I WANT him to succeed...BADLY, but with each demotion-promotion-demotion cycle, I lose hope..I think that we all do.

The Bullpen: By the numbers...

Alright, here we go….take a breath, gather yourself, post number one (of many to follow).

When thinking about what my first post would be about, visions of all you can eat hotdogs in the outfield came to mind initially but I then experienced a rush of other ideas; Prince Fielder, State of the Franchise, AA’s offseason, or perhaps even the distinguished Mr. Rick Donaldson, everyone’s favourite drummer. These ideas were overplayed, boring, or premature so it brought me to the topic of today’s enlightenment.

The Bullpen.

Before we proceed, let us remember this time last season…pitchers and catchers reporting in the coming weeks…there was A LOT of talk about how the pen was a strength going into the season. Francisco and Rauch, the two towers, the 1-2 punch that would bring confidence to our starters…just get us to the 8^th, we’ve got it from here! Sadly, those guys didn’t deliver and the bullpen became our ultimate crutch. Saves were blown, batters were walked, home runs were hit, players were walked, and even the number of base on balls seemed painful. Excuses ensued. “Well there were no assigned roles from the get-go”, “Frankie was injured to start the year”, “Dora backpacks weren’t shared equally among the rookies”…the list goes on. AA shuffled the deck and after the Rasmus deal, our pen was essentially non-existent with the exception of Janssen and Frankie (yes, Frankie).

Were all of our hopes misleading?

Maybe….maybe not.

Is the pen better this season?

Maybe…maybe not.

Are Frankie, Rauch and Dotel synonymous with Santos, Cordero, and Oliver?

NO!

Let’s look at a few highly important and non-sabermetric categories.

All it took was a Timmy’s large and a bit of excel spreadsheeting and I managed to paint a pretty user-friendly picture of the way things are, or appear to be, going into the 2012 season.

If we look at the beautifully appointed tables that are included below, we can see that there are some similarities….and several differences.

Similarities from Previous Season (aka 2010 for the 2011 pen and 2011 for the 2012 pen) Stats:

Total strikeouts, walks per 9 innings, blown saves, and even age.

Positive Differences from Previous Season Stats:

IP, ERA, WHIP, Total SVs, Blown SV % (thank god!), and Wins.

	Previous Season
	IPs	ERA	WHIP	K's	K's/9inn	BB/9inn	SV	BS	BS%	W	L
2011	492.3	3.86	1.36	479	8.8	3.3	52	23	31%	30	22
2012	545.5	3.47	1.24	476	7.9	3.1	72	24	25%	38	26

How about career numbers?

Take a gander…

	Career
	IPs	ERA	WHIP	K's	K's/9inn	BB/9inn	SV	BS	BS%	W	L
2011	3758.6	3.94	1.31	3494	8.4	3.4	276	145	34%	216	214
2012	4533.5	4.02	1.38	3491	6.9	3.4	415	128	24%	264	249

Positive Notes from the Career Comparison:

We gain 774 IP, 139 total SV, 48 wins, and an improvement in blown SV% of 11%!

How about these numbers:

	Salary($Mil)	Experience (MLB Yrs)	Age	Weight	Postseason IPs
2011	19.1896	51	32	226	14.2
2012	18.116	58	32	212	44.4

Could it be we are paying less for a pen with more years of MLB service, playoff experience, and even average player weight. Kudos to AA for keeping up with his tendencies for more athletic players.

Sure, we are taking some big leaps and bounds and these numbers don’t reflect several intangibles that exist in any bullpen/clubhouse, not to mention those who may burst on to the scene in spring training, but it does seem that we are ahead of where we were last year and this will hopefully translate into some wins.

That being said…LETS GO BLUE JAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!