Batting Lineups: Biased and unqualified!

With the regular season upon us (well for M’s and A’s fans), we need to start harnessing our excitement towards productive means. Things such as; fabrication of your Opening Day 2012 Signs, heading down to the Jays Shop to load up on Vizquel gear, planting the seed towards your “get out of work free” card next Thursday at 2pm, playing rock-paper-scissors to see who doesn’t get the last ticket to the opener and coming up with your guest list for any pre-game festivities…preferably involving kegs and bbq’d meats.

For me, I have channeled my energy towards this posting. I have decided to play manager for the MLB roster and come up with my ideal batting lineup. The reason for doing so, besides boredom/interest, is that I don’t see myself agreeing with the “expected” starting batting order that would likely have Lawrie buried down to the depths of Sean Rodriguez, Jason Kipnis, or even, dare I say, Alexi Casilla. Most of the current projections that I have seen have the Jays order looking like this…even though KJ is making a case to lead off coming out of spring.

1.       Escobar

2.       KJ

3.       Joey Bats

4.       Lind

5.       EE

6.       Rasmus

7.       Lawrie

8.       Thames

9.       JPA

Here is my proposed lineup…

1.       Escobar

2.       KJ

3.       Lawrie

4.       Joey Bats

5.       Lind

6.       EE

7.       Rasmus

8.       JPA

9.       Thames

Sure there are only subtle differences, but I see them as being substantial. To take a page out of the Moneyball approach, to win, SCORE RUNS! Sure there’s the “I want Bautista hitting in the 1^st inning” claim but really can you think of a better (albeit unproven to some degree) 1 -2 punch with our current crop of talent? Lawrie at 3 is a high average, high OPS workhorse with speed to not only drive in runs, but further set the table for Bautista (and Lind). Think about the pitches he’s going to see batting in front of arguably the most feared batter in the league. Bautista proved last season that he really doesn’t NEED the protection behind him in the lineup to produce….regardless, he’s still got Lind behind him which doesn’t change anything…except his 1^st inning ABs. I DO like the R-L-R combo to start games, to allow good opportunity for early hit and run scenarios as well as tougher matchups for bullpen substitutions. Beyond the infusion of Lawrie at the top of the lineup, really I’ve suggested minor tweaks that likely would iron out in the wash…lets see what happens!

To take it one step further, let’s compare to what I think are the scariest lineups in MLB.

Lineups to reckon with…
	BOS	NYY	DET	TEX	LAA
1	Ellsbury L	Jeter R	Jackson R	Kinsler R	Aybar S
2	Pedroia R	Granderson L	Boesch L	Andrus R	Kendrick R
3	Crawford L	Cano L	Cabrera R	Hamilton L	Pujols R
4	Gonzalez L	Arod R	Fielder L	Beltre R	Hunter R
5	Ortiz L	Texiera S	Young R	Young R	Wells R
6	Youkilis R	Swisher S	Avila L	Cruz R	Abreu/Trumbo L/R
7	Ross/Sweeny (R/L)	Ibanez L	Peralta R	Napoli R	Callaspo S
8	Saltalamacchia S	Martin R	Dirks L	Moreland L	Iannetta R
9	Aviles R	Gardner L	Raburn R	Borbon L	Bourjos R

Each of them has at least 1 left handed bat in the first 3. All of them have their 4 hitter bracketed by a solid batter (perhaps with the exception of Mr. Wells). We may not stack up 1-5 with each of these lineups…but 1-9 we are right there and with the 5^th best offence in the AL last season, there is little reason to think the Jays will be taking any steps backwards.

Blue Jay Depth

Two months ago I looked at the Jays and thought, not unlike many people, that the Jays had a solid starting 8 in the lineup.  But, I was worried about the lack of depth the Jays actually had, in the event that a player went down with an injury, as is typically inevitable over the course of 162 games.  I'm not anymore.

If spring training has shown us anything, it's that the Jays have a plethora of talent capable of stepping into the lineup.  Over a full 162-game schedule, we don't know.  But to come in for a few weeks, absolutely. 

Starting with the outfield, there's the likely starting lineup of Snider, Rasmus and Bautista.  Now granted, you can't replace Bautista's bat, but waiting to fill in here we have Thames, Davis, Francisco, and from the looks of it, Encarnacion, should we be required.  Even Gose is a possibility.  This is a very nice group of solid, veteran outfielders (and Gose).  Granted, none are superstars, but all are very capable.

The infield has a completely different kind of depth.  D'Arnaud and Hech have been outstanding in spring training.  Seeing them up in the majors this season is quite likely.  The possibility of Arencibia perhaps spelling Lind at 1st to get D'Arnaud some starts is an interesting prospect.  At third, the natural replacement for Lawrie will be Encarnacion.  However, if long term, I'd be more inclined to move Bautista to third and have one of our other outfielders move into RF.

We all hope none of this is required.  Everyone staying healthy would be fantastic, but it won't happen. But spring training has shown how far many of our prospects have come and if forced into the majors at an early date, many have shown they're capable.

Looking forward to an exciting, healthy season!

We would like to welcome our foreign affairs correspondent, Fielder's Choice, to the mix. Unfortunately, like most start up companies our budget is restrictive or as some say our "payroll has parameters". None the less, Fielder's contributions are welcomed and informative.

Fielder's recent post regarding the challenges experienced whilst trying to follow the Jays in Florida got me thinking...which ultimately lead to frustration. 

Over the past two days Rogers Sportsnet ... owners of 6 cable channels and multiple radio stations, not to mention ancillary media have (over the past two days) decided to air both the Red Sox and Yankees on SN. Said again - the RED SOX and YANKEES ! And we're here talking about watching the Phillies and Jays ON TV NEXT SUNDAY. Is it just me, or is this grievance legitimate.

I posed this predicament to another member of the Concrete Convertible and we agreed that there are significant costs associated with airing spring training games. However, I don't buy this as a legitimate argument. With the exception of the Phillies, aren't the Jays owned by the wealthiest corporation. There's more, most of the Rogers MLB staff is already in Florida: Davidi, Cormack, Carson, Alan, Jerry, Blair ... Zaun owns a home in Tampa and Jamie Campbell seems like a guy who was born to wear Hawaiian shirts. So basically, chuck in a flight for JC and he can shack up with Zauny. I'm sure Zaun would be fine with this. 

However, accommodations aren't the only associated costs. There are also camera crews, audio-visual crews, lighting crews, producers, etc.  This is easily remedied. Has anyone ever seen a Spring Training game on TV ... its hardly Fox Sports pennant race coverage. There's one fixed camera behind home plate and maybe a couple of mobile units. Hardly huge production, and that is not what fans want, we just want to see some ball. So if Rogers is unwilling to rent a U-Haul and pile some gear in it, how about contracting someone like FSN south or TBS to provide the gear and operators and Rogers can foot the bill. 

Still not convinced this is viable ? How about this. We have all seen and heard of the HBO 24/7 success, and Oil Change, hell even the Argos have a dedicated program. So how about filming an insider series such as those mentioned above. How cool would it be to track the Jays through spring training and get an inside perspective of the club house and relationships between players. I think there are many compelling stories this spring, such as left field, the rotation, Rasmus, Drabek - I can go on and on.  The success of this program would generate huge revenue and interest. 

Further, Rogers could sell spring training game coverage to TSN or CBC.  TSN has curling and golf going on two channels and CBC shows skiing and saturday night hockey. This would provide a huge boost to rating that are suffering until March Madness kicks off. 

There are no doubt other ways of making this proposition a reality. But I leave you with this: If Cormack develops tendinitis from tweeting play-by-play and has to go on the IR who is going to take responsibility. So if Roger's won't do it for fans, then do it of Cormack's thumbs. Another positive: we'll get the f@cking 'Sox and Yanks off tv.             

Left vs Right

This is a topic that I don't think many people give enough value to as it's a category that mainly applies to National League games and strategies. I'm taking about batting and pitching for lefties and righties. The reason why I want to talk about is this is because A) I'm new to blogging and thought this would be an interesting topic to get my feet wet with, and B) The Jays and AA have done a great job at balancing their lineup with right and left handed hitters, but lack balance in their bullpen.

Let's start with the bats. For arguments sake I'm going to use what I imagine our Opening Day lineup might look like with each batters hitting direction. I've also added extra players in case of injuries and such, so bear with me.

Catchers - Arencibia/Mathis - R/R

1st - Lind - L

2nd - Johnson - L

SS - Escobar - R

3rd - Lawrie - R

RF - Bautista - R

CF - Rasmus/Davis - L/R

LF - Thames/Snider - L/L

Bench/DH

Encarnacion - R

McCoy/Valbuena - R/R

An idea I want to toy with here is the thought of both Snider and Thames making the team out of Spring Training, even though Farrell and AA have said otherwise. The reason I want to run with this idea is because it would in theory give us the opportunity to throw an extra left handed bat in at DH. Now I know that most of us assume that this spot will be mostly filled by Encarnacion, but I'm not his biggest supporter. Even having the option of going to a guy like Thames or Snider off the bench could be huge in the later innings, and could easily be the difference between a handful of wins vs losses.

Rasmus and Johnson were good pick ups defensively, but both batted for shit when they came to Toronto. I think we'll see some solid improvements this season, and working with Murphy almost guarantees an increase in power. Take into account that Johnson is a right handed throwing, left handed batting second baseman, and you've got a rare commodity. Reminds me of a guy that plays for the Yankees, won the Home Run Derby last year, I think his name was Robertson something or other ...

Ok, so here's how a potential lineup against a right hander could look:

Rasmus - L
Johnson - L
Bautista - R
Lind - L
Lawrie - R
Snider - L
Arencibia - R
Thames - L
Escobar - R

And now a left hander:

Davis - R
Valbuena/McCoy - R
Bautista - R
Lind - L
Lawrie - R
Encarnacion - R
Arencibia - R
Thames/Snider - L
Escobar - R

Now the lefty lineup isn't very likely, but you get the idea. We can be a very diverse team depending on who's pitching against us. That's something I like, as not many teams in the AL have that ability.

*Sidenote* I didn't include Vizquel, who is a switch hitter, but is older than Mr. Burns.

Now onto pitching. As I mentioned before, our rotation is looking nice and balanced with lefties and righties,  but our bullpen is right handed heavy. I'll start with my projected rotation.

Romero - L
Morrow - R
Cecil - L
McGowan - R
Alvarez - R

3 righties vs 2 lefties, pretty standard. Romero is our ace, and YES HE IS AN ACE!!! If you don't think so, go play in oncoming traffic wearing a blindfold! Morrow is only getting better and is a strikeout machine! Dude just needs to get his control shored up and he'll be lights out. I'm very happy we signed him to an extension! Cecil is in the same boat as Snider, this is most likely his last shot to prove he can be a consistent player in The Bigs. If he doesn't pan out as starter, or somebody else steals his spot, I'm comfortable to see him come out of the pen, as it'll give us another lefty, but I'll get to that. McGowan is FINALLY healthy and is looking in fine form this spring. He lacks the potential of Morrow, but the two are similar pitchers. Look for them to be conversing in the dugout frequently I imagine. As with Cecil, I'm fine with him coming out of the pen if needs be. Alvarez could go either way. If there's one guy in danger of losing a starter role, it's him. He pitched very well last year and was a pleasant surprise, so he has big potential. I'd much rather see him get starts than Litsch or Drabek, as he needs to log innings to get experience. However, if he's not up to caliber, he may be making a trip or two to Vegas, time will tell. All in all, I'm liking our rotation if this is what is ends being.

Now onto the weakest portion of my right vs left argument, our bullpen. Now before you get all defensive and start to yell at me, I want to clarify that our bullpen overall looks very strong this year. The pickups of Cordero and Santos are hopefully going to be the sexy one-two punch that we've been lacking. My argument is that I think we're only going to have one lefty out of the pen to start the season. Here's my prediction of our Opening Day bullpen, if everybody is healthy.

*Litsch - R
*Drabek - R
Janssen - R
Oliver - L
Frasor - R
Cordero - R
Santos - R

* These guys are our long relief men and are subject to movement within our rotation and AAA.

If this was our bullpen today, Oliver would be our only left hander out of the pen. While this may not present a huge problem as Janssen, Frasor, Cordero, and Santos are all solid, I would like to see at least one more lefty available. The reason I propose this is that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays all have good left handed batting threats in the top of their order. As I said, our bullpen should be reliable enough most games to handle these guys, but every advantage could help us wins games. I would love to be able to bring in a "Left-Handed Specialist" to deal with guys that can hurt us like Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Robinson Cano, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, David Ortiz, Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson and Sam Fuld. I left out Texiera, Swisher, and Zobrist as they are switch hitters, but any of the guys I've just listed has the ability to screw over the Jays at any point in the game, but especially the late innings. To have a guy who's only responsibility is to deal with guys like this could prove to be invaluable.

Two guys that could fill this role are Luis Perez and Aaron Laffey. Perez we've seen briefly last year, and Laffey has been with a few major league clubs and needs a fresh start with the Jays. I don't know much about either, but they are the only 2 guys on our roster who have had major league experience, have put up good numbers so far this spring, and are lefties.

Anyways, that's my 2 cents on a very specific topic. I know it's random, but anything to help get us some wins right?

Let's hear your thoughts.

Foreign Correspondence

Hey dudes,

Sorry for my lack of postings, being none thusfar, but I am not a blogger by nature. I wish I had a legitimate excuse, but I'm just lazy. I'd rather watch or listen to the Jays and discuss stuff in person rather than write about it. However, like most men in a relationship have said without really meaning it "Baby, I'm trying to change".

So that being said, let me catch you up on my trip in Florida in which I had planned to see some Jays games, things have not gone as planned.

So I'm in Delray Beach (look at the map if you don't know where it is, as I said I'm lazy and don't want to describe it to you), which is possibly the furthest location from Dunedin and the Jays. So my plan was to rent a car for a few days and drive roughly 4 hours across Florida, get a hotel nearby, and watch the Jays. However, being unemployed has it's downsides, mainly being a broke ass bitch! So that plan went out the window.

Then I figured that I'd be able to watch the Jays on TV ... Guess again. Even though the games are set up for viewing, the MLB network only televises on one channel for the preseason. I even went to a few sports bars down here to check if they had anything, zilch. Long story short, I ended up having to buy a $20 membership to MLB.com to get the radio broadcasts for the year, so at least I can listen to Jays, or any other games, wherever there is internet access. At least I could follow the games while getting some sun in the backyard, which is better than nothing I guess.

So, after a few days of listening to Alan and Jerry, I really started jonesing HARD for some live action. So I decided that I was going to make a day trip up to Kissimmee to watch the Jays on Friday, come hell or high water I wanted to see a Jays game while I was here. Again, things didn't go as planned ... Now you need to know that the drive to Kissimmee is 3 hours each way, which I was fully prepared to make, provided the game wasn't going to be rained out. However, upon checking the weather the night before, it called for 80% chance of rain. I figured I'd make a game time decision the next morning. So I woke up nice and early and checked the weather again, now it called for a 95% chance of rain ... I made what I thought was the wise decision and decided to stay here and hit the beach, provided it wasn't a crappy day.

Well it turns out that Florida meteorologists are borderline retarded as the weather was perfect both here and in Kissimmee. I can't explain how upset and frustrated I was that the one game I had a chance at seeing, I blew off because I thought it was going to be a bust and would involve 6 hours of driving for nothing.

Also, keep in mind that I couldn't have had any beer as I would've had to drive back. So instead I had some beers in the sun, got a mad sunburn, listened to the game on my computer, and got pissed off because the Jays DESTROYED the Astros and I wasn't there to witness it!!!

Anyways, I needed to get that off my chest as I'm still bitter about the whole situation. I'm glad that the Jays are having a solid spring, and my first real blog concerning them will be following shortly.

It's a wild wild card format

The Toronto Blue Jays have been toiling in mediocrity for the better part of 2 decades now.  They have consistently finished 6th-8th in the American League for many years now.  That is not success.  After all, if they don't make the playoffs, how can it be a success?  With Major League Baseball evidently poised to announce a 2nd wild card position, will that really change how "successful" the Jays will be?  I don't think so.

Finishing 5th in the AL is no easy task.  Ignoring the other 2 divisions and the potential wild card teams there, the Jays are going to have to finish ahead of at least one of the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays.  It will not be an easy task to pick up a wild card spot when 1/3 of our games are against these 3 teams, arguably 3 of the best in MLB.

But does it matter?  I am not a fan of the new proposed wild card format.  Under the new system, the 2 wild card teams will play off in a 1-game elimination game.  The winner will move on to play the 1st place team in the AL in the divisional series.  This new system places the wild card team at such a massive disadvantage, what's the point?  Are we going to be happy if the Jays get to play 163 instead of 162 games?

For argument's sake, let us assume the Blue Jays make the playoffs in the 5th position.  And let us assume they play the Red Sox.  With the importance of the game, we'll roll out Romero.  We win.  We're now going to take on the Yankees, or Rangers, or Angels, without our ace.  Perhaps, with a tired bullpen.  Good luck. 

This isn't specific to the Jays.  Wild card teams don't typically have more than 1 or 2 high end starters.  That first place team is already advantaged by earning home field advantage.  This is another way to tip the scales to their advantage.  Because this format doesn't allow a 5th team into the playoffs, it hurts the 4th place team and makes it so difficult to knock off the top team, it's ridiculous.

But is that what MLB really wants?  It gives the league another playoff game, eg. more revenue.  It increases the likelihood of the top team moving on.  When that top team is often the Yankees, Red Sox, or another high profile team, that is enormous for MLB.  They want that team moving on.  They don't want the Blue Jays moving on. 

The idea of a 2nd wild card team is, on the surface, an exciting prospect for Jays fans.  It definitely increases the likelihood we'll make the playoffs.  But it actually hinders the possibility of the Jays moving beyond the divisional series.  Unless the Jays win the AL East, the new wild card format will do nothing but hurt the Blue Jays.